The latest state revenue forecast shows a troubling drop in tax collections and continued budget uncertainty.
- Since June, revenues are down more than $600 million, with adjustments pushing the real reduction closer to $845 million.
- Federal changes under HR1 could also reduce Oregon’s tax receipts by $888 million for 2025–27 and cut federal funding by over $1 billion in the same period.
Additional context from the forecast:
- Population growth is slowing, with deaths now outnumbering births; future growth will come from net migration.
- Oregon’s unemployment rate is higher than the national average.
- Job creation is strongest in secondary metro areas, while high-income private sector jobs are declining.
- Policy changes such as new deductions and adjustments to the SALT formula are expected to further reduce state revenues.
While forecasters caution that these numbers may shift later in the biennium, policymakers are preparing for potential shortfalls.